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Much of the early offseason news about the Twins has focused on Joe Mauer, and for good reason. Whether the Twins can resign the AL MVP is important to the baseball landscape in Minnesota and MLB as a whole. The Twins also have other concerns. One of which is filling out the starting rotation.
Twins beat reporter Kelly Thesier discussed this topic in her latest mailbag. Carl Pavano, who went 5-4 in 12 starts after being traded to Minnesota by the Indians, is one possibility. He pitched well for the Twins, who are interested in bringing Pavano back in 2010. In 73.2 innings as a Twin, Pavano had a 4.64 ERA, 3.56 FIP, and 1.37 WHIP. Pavano also helped solidify the Twins rotation on the team's way to winning the AL Central. Pavano finished the season 14-12 with a 5.10 ERA. In ten of his twelve starts with the Twins, Pavano pitched five-plus innings. Pavano is a pitcher whose 2009 numbers don't tell the whole story of how successful his season was. Pavano's cheap, effective season in which he showed good stuff may have resurrected his career.
The Twins are interested in re-signing Pavano and have talked to his agent. The Twins will have competition, including Cleveland. Cleveland and Minnesota may get first priority in talking to Pavano. The issue is whether either team will be able to afford him, especially when more teams get involved - especially in this down market for pitchers. The Indians signed Pavano for $1.5 million and he ended up making $4.35 million, including $2.85 million in incentives. Pavano made $11 million in 2008 and $10 million in 2007. There's a slim chance he'll be willing to take an incentive-laden contract in 2010 after using 2009 to show he can still pitch. Pavano wants to explore free agency. There is a chance he returns to the Twins, but it appears the team must also explore other options.
Thesier notes the Twins want to add a veteran pitcher to the rotation, for the right price. If not Pavano, it could be Jarrod Washburn or Rich Harden. The injury-prone Harden is an intriguing possibility for the Twins. The Twins targeted Harden in August, putting a waiver claim on the pitcher until the Cubs pulled him back. Harden has trouble staying on the field, but his ability to strike out batters with his electric stuff should interest the Twins. The Twins have a deep system which would allow the team to take a risk on Harden.
Harden carries risk, but signing him could be rewarding if he remains healthy. Harden could be the Joe Crede of 2010. His 10.92 K/9 is intriguing. Harden wouldn't have much trouble transitioning to the AL after spending five-and-a-half seasons in Oakland. Harden could sign an incentive laden, short term contract like Pavano signed last season. There's a slim chance a team signs him to a long-term deal given his injury history. Harden would be the more attractive pitcher if he's willing to sign a short-term, incentive-laden contract as opposed to Pavano who will be looking for more money. Harden, like Pavano, could see demand for his services on the free agent market. Obviously, that would complicate the Twins' ability to sign him.
The Twins do have other options, if the team is interested. Washburn, Jon Garland, and Erik Bedard come to mind from this season's crop of free agent pitchers. As always, economics come into play for the Twins. Restricting the initial discussion to Pavano and Harden, the Twins should go for Harden. He's in a similar situation to Pavano entering the 2009 season. Depending on the demand for him, the Twins should be able to sign him to a one- or two-year incentive-based contract. If Harden falters in 2010, the Twins have the rotation and minor league talent to take over.
Minnesota must sign a veteran pitcher to compliment the youngsters on the pitching staff. Pavano's play with the Twins in 2009 demonstrated what a veteran can do for that rotation. If the Twins sign the right pitcher this offseason, it could also convince the MVP to stay with his hometown team. A veteran pitcher like Harden, Pavano, or Washburn helps Minnesota keep the momentum from 2009 as a playoff team.
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Really, though? The two most important things remaining this offseason are (a) re-signing Mauer and (b) NOT signing Washburn. JW is an extreme flyball pitcher who looked great pitching in front of the Mariners, who trotted out what might be the best outfield defense ever assembled on one team in a very large park. Then he went to the much more ordinary Tigers and was terrible. I don't know what the Twins' new park will play like, of course, but now that Gomez is gone, they will probably have the worst outfield defense in the major leagues. Washburn would be a disaster.