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Disclaimer: I am not insinuating that any of the moves mentioned in this article will happen. I have no inside knowledge, and I don't want to lay out odds of these moves being made. The point of this article is to look at things the Mariners have the means (and are rumored) to do to make a push next season.
After a surprise above .500 finish in 2009, the Seattle Mariners seem to be in good hands now that the devil himself Bill Bavasi is gone and Jack Z is sitting behind the desk. With truckloads of money coming off the payroll this offseason, the Mariners are rumored to be big players in the free agent market. It's really difficult to tell if they will be, because we've only seen how Jack Z operates on a very limited budget.
Before seeing who they could sign, we need to find out exactly how much money they have to work with. Luckily, that work has been done for us by the good folks at Lookout Landing. After factoring in all of the arbitration raises that will be due, Jeff concluded that the M's will have ~$68 million locked up next year. In '09, their payroll came in at $99MM, but they have exceeded the $100MM mark before (remember the 100/100 club?). For argument's sake, let's say Jack can convince the owner to raise the payroll to $105MM for next year, which isn't out of the question in my mind and according to other sources out there. With that in mind, Seattle has $37 million to spend. Now, onto the good stuff.
For their first move of the offseason, the M's could sign John Lackey. A Felix/Lackey combo is great, and is better than anything else they can trot out to the mound. While he is getting to the top of the hill (he may even be over it), he is still a great pitcher who will be able to find ways to get the job done. He is asking for a lot, but the market just isn't there and will drive his price down. Contract: 4 years, $50 million. Budget left: $24.5MM.
Next, they go after a left fielder, signing Jason Bay to a deal. Bay is from Washington state, so the location factor comes into play. Like Lackey, he has a big price, but it looks like it will be driven down by the market. Contract: 3 years, $42 million. Budget left: $10.5MM.
Also on the agenda for the Mariners is bringing back Russell Branyan. He declined a one-year deal with an option already, so it's going to take a two-year deal to get the job done. It looks like he will be back, but the price is unknown. I will have to use my best judgement with this one. Contract: 2 years, $12 million. Budget left: $4.5MM.
The only real hole to be filled is the DH spot, but if push comes to shove Griffey can play there. However, let's spend that money! Erik Hinske (1 yr, $2MM) hasn't been rumored but makes sense with the kind of player Jack Z signs. And, Mike Redmond (1 yr, $1MM), who has been talked about as the possible new backup catcher. This leaves us some wiggle room to play with, should contracts be a bit more than expected. After all of these moves, here is what the roster would look like (starters listed first):
C - Adam Moore, Redmond
1B - Branyan, Hinske
2B - Jose Lopez
3B - Matt Tuiaosopo, Jack Hannahan
SS - Jack Wilson. Hannahan
LF - Jason Bay, Hinske
CF - Franklin Gutierrez
RF - Ichiro, Hinske
DH - Hinske, Griffey
UTIL - Bill Hall
SP - Felix, Lackey, Ryan Rowland-Smith, Brandon Morrow, Ian Snell
RP - David Aardsma, Mark Lowe, Shawn Kelley, Doug Fister, Jason Vargas, Chris Jakubauskas, Carlos Silva
By my count, that's 25 players. Rob Johnson, Michael Saunders, Ryan Langerhans and Sean White would be left to compete for roster spots, but would be ready to come in at any time if injuries occurred.
Is this a championship team? Probably not, but you never know. The rotation is solid, the bullpen is good to go, and the lineup is improved without killing the defense (except LF). This team is likely to win the AL West, but maybe I'm just biased. In the playoffs, they have the rotation that could help lead them through, but not the talent to get past the Yankees.
If the Mariners can get Bay, Lackey and Branyan at the prices listed, they can compete, or at least make the playoffs in 2010. Of course, I'm biased here, but I believe the prices set make sense and will be the eventual numbers. Chances are, they will not be able to get Bay, but could spend the money on Hideki Matsui and allow Hinske to start in left. The roster flexibility will suffer, but the team would still be good when healthy.
This piece was written as per a request by reader and twitter follower Aaron T. I am always open to suggestions or requests for analysis, as it makes it so I don't have to think of ideas.
Lackey image from Ghost of Moonlight Graham, and Bay image from A Believer's Blog.
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