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Rookie of the Year Awards Announced
Written by Daniel Moroz   
Monday, 16 November 2009 19:00

The Rookie of the Year awards were announced today, with A's closer Andrew Bailey taking the award in the AL and Marlins outfielder* Chris Coghlan winning in the NL. I was largely resigned to these decisions, though I don't think they were correct. (Cue the self-righteous indignation and brazen second-guessing.)

* Sort of.

Coghlan hit an impressive .321/.390/.460 - I'm not taking anything away from that - but that wasn't too much more substantial than Pirates center-fielder Andrew McCutchen's .286/.365/.471 line. McCutchen outhomered Coghlan 12 to 9, drove in more runs (54 to 47), and did both in 72 fewer plate appearances. On top of that, Coghlan played left-field (his natural position of second-base was occupied by Dan Uggla) - and somewhat poorly at that (-11.1 Ultimate Zone Rating) - while McCutchen was about average (-0.7 UZR) in the more valuable outfield spot (CF). Overall, Coghlan came in at 2.3 Wins Above Replacement according to FanGraphs, while McCutchen blew him out of the water with 3.4 WAR. A shiny batting average - built largely off of a .366 BABIP - is nice, but defense matters too.

McCutchen finished fourth with just 2 first-place votes and 25 total points. Phillies pitcher JA Happ came in a relatively close second (94 points, 8 first-place votes, 1.8 WAR), with Braves pitcher Tommy Hanson in a distant third (37 points, 2 first-place votes, 2.6 WAR). Coghlan was listed first on 17 ballots and totaled 105 points, with Casey McGehee, Randy Wells, Garrett Jones, Everth Cabrera, Dexter Fowler, Gerardo Parra, and Colby Rasmus all getting votes in a larger than expected NL field.

Over in the junior circuit Bailey was largely lights-out as a closer, saving 26 games in 30 chances with a 1.84 ERA. His teammate, starter Brett Anderson, went just 11-11 with a 4.06 ERA, so obviously he got just 4 points in the voting (6th place). I've made the case previously for Anderson, noting that he lead all rookies - in both leagues - in WAR, at 3.8. That he pitched many more innings than Bailey (175.1), while striking out batters (150) and maintaining good control (45). That his 3.33 K/BB ratio - while not as good as Bailey's 3.79 - was still 8th in the AL amongst all qualified starters. And finally, that despite the gulf in ERA, Anderson's 3.69 FIP was every bit as impressive as Bailey's 2.56, given that a pitcher moving from the rotation to the bullpen can expect about a 1 run drop in ERA. Guess it wasn't meant to be, though it should allow Anderson to fly under the radar a little bit next season.

Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus and his fantastic glove finished second (65 points, 8 first-place votes, 3.0 WAR) - neck and neck with Tigers starter Rick Porcello (64 points, 7 first-place votes, 1.9 WAR). Bailey wasn't as much of a runaway victor as Coghlan, with 88 points and 13 first-place votes. Jeff Neimann and Gordon Beckham finishing 4th and 5th respectively, with no other rookies getting any attention.

Overrating batting average and saves, underrating defense - it's just like old times. Takes me back* to the simpler days when men where feared and pitcher finished what they started and Joe Morgan was the crazy guy who actually valued getting on base.

* You know, like ten years before I was born. Those were the days.



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