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With the free agency period now upon us, St. Louis sees Matt Holliday as its top offseason priority. In 63 games with the Cardinals, Holliday hit .353/.419/.604 with 13 home runs and 55 RBI. He provided a complimentary bat to Albert Pujols and instantly made the Cardinals lineup more dangerous. Seeing as Scott Boras is his agent, the Cardinals are no lock to resign him. That won't deter St. Louis from attempting to resign Holliday once it has a better picture of the market for him. Keeping him in St. Louis would be a boon for the Cardinals offense. If Holliday signs elsewhere, don't expect the Cardinals to be players for Jason Bay.
General Manager John Mozeliak confirmed that if Holliday is not resigned, the Cardinals will shift priorities away from offense. The Cardinals alternatives focus around starting pitching, not offense. Those shifted priorities would not prevent St. Louis from going after Holliday's replacement. An outfielder less expensive than Holliday or Bay could be found via free agency, i.e. Xavier Nady or Johnny Damon, or via trade, i.e. Josh Willingham. If Holliday is not resigned, the Cardinals could also go after third base options like Chone Figgins or Adrian Beltre. The Cardinals lineup would suffer drop off, but it wouldn't be catastrophic.
The Cardinals do have options if the team's focus shifts to pitching.
While Mozeliak believes this season's free agent crop is short on marquee pitchers, the Cardinals don't need to find an ace. When your starting rotation already has aces that finished second and third in the NL Cy Young voting, you don't need to find an ace. The Cardinals need pitchers to compliment Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, and Kyle Lohse. As Mozeliak said, "Overall, it's probably fair to say the market doesn't offer the big brand names that we saw a year ago, but it does offer pitchers that allow you flexibility. Our other guys are signed long term, so I see that as a benefit." The Cardinals could find a trade partner in Detroit for Edwin Jackson or in Atlanta, where Tim Hudson's contract extension gives the Braves a surplus of pitchers. Jackson's being dangled out there in front of every team. Derek Lowe and Javier Vazquez may not fit the type of pitcher the Cardinals are looking for. The Cardinals already have pitching options 1 and 1a. Acquiring Lowe or Vazquez would greatly help the Cardinals, but may be too rich to pull off. The Braves will look for a hefty return in exchange for Lowe or Vazquez because they are top tier pitchers.
The Cardinals do have familiar options. Joel Piñeiro could be brought back. St. Louis must be wary of offering him salary arbitration when he's coming off a resurrgent 15-12 season. Piñeiro is looking for a deal in the $10 million range. John Smoltz could also be brought back, but the Cardinals might want to explore other options first.
The Cardinals could use a left-handed starting pitcher. None of the pitchers mentioned above are lefties. The Cardinals need some balance in their rotation. A starting rotation of five righties obviously doesn't create the necessary balance. They could justify acquiring a pitcher like Jackson if they also acquire a left-handed starter. The Cardinals must fill out their starting rotation.
Yes, St. Louis' offseason hinges on its ability to resign Holliday. If the Cardinals resign Holliday, it may hamstring Mozeliak from filling other needs. If Holliday does sign elsewhere, the Cardinals have other, cheaper left field options that allow for the signing of a starting pitcher. If Holliday does not resign, free agent pitchers like Randy Wolf become viable starting rotation options.
As much as Cardinals fans would like to see Holliday keep wearing Cardinals red, it might be best for the team if he signs elsewhere (after the Cardinals attempt to resign him, of course), allowing the Cardinals to upgrade at other positions.
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