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While listening to a couple of Cubs fans commiserate about the team's fortunes, I got to thinking about their decision to ship out Milton Bradley for Carlos Silva. To me, that decision was about three steps worse than just taking the money they owe Bradley and setting it on fire – a practice for which there's precedent in Chicago.
Clearly the organization – and plenty of fans – had identified the malcontent Bradley as What Went Wrong with the team last season. His outspoken nature did not work well with the Wrigley fans or the Chicago media, and early injuries and ineffectiveness only added fuel to the flames. So, it's true that things didn't exactly go as hoped for Mr. Bradley. But his indefensible suspension at the end of the season – an ignominious cap to a disappointing season – sealed his fate. No way you can keep a guy like that around after you do something so drastic*. Upon his departure, Cubs fans were happy, Lou Piniella, who supported the suspension, was happy, and teams who recognized that Bradley was still a productive bat were happy. Everyone wins! Well, except for the beat writers who were, presumably, unhappy because they couldn't blame every problem on Milton “Clubhouse Cancer” (or “Mercurial”) Bradley.
*Also indefensible is the union's actions in response. How did they not move past the “considering filing a grievance” stage there? Is that not their job? They filed a grievance to try to reimburse players for “charitable donations” clauses in their contracts, for crying out loud, and they couldn't be bothered to defend a player who had a legitimate claim? Ridiculous. And I may or may not have included these last two sentences to that I didn't just write a paragraph consisting entirely of questions.
In hindsight, however, we can look back and see that Bradley was not the problem with this team. Did he play up to expectations? Well, no, but if expectations were that he repeat his '08 season (.321/.436/.563, league-leading 161 OPS+) then that was a foregone conclusion from the moment the ink dried on the contract. What he did provide was the third-or-fourth best bat on the team with at least 450 PA. Which, by the way, is a group that includes only him, Derrek Lee, Kosuke Fukudome, Ryan Theriot, and Alfonso Soriano. I mention that not only to point out that injuries were a huge factor in what ailed the Cubs last season – to say nothing of Bradley's season – but to also point out a gentleman on that list who should really be viewed as the scapegoat here. Follow along after the jump for the big reveal of just who that fellow is – and to see how this whole thing broadens into a large-scale look at bad contracts in the league.
I'm sure it's no surprise that I'm picking on Alfonso Soriano*, he of the 8-year, $126MM contract. Which he signed coming off of a .277/.351/.560 season with a 135 OPS+. As in, barely in the same ballpark as Milton Bradley's '08. And yes, I know Soriano was coming off of a 40-40 season, but just for fun, let's look at some of his most comparable players: Raul Mondesi, Troy Glaus, Cliff Floyd, Eric Chavez, Ryan Klesko, Mike Lowell, and Wally Berger. Now, I don't know about you, but I just can't think of a group that aged better than those guys. Collectively, they were a picture of health that even Cal Ripken would envy.
*Couple of fun facts re Soriano: he made his professional debut with the Hiroshima Toyo Carp in Japan when he was 21. He went 2-17 with 2 walks (sounds like his 2009...hey oh!), then promptly retired and was snatched up by the Yankees. Also, his contract allows him a suite on road trips, plus six premium tickets to every home game from Spring Training through the postseason. And also the All-Star Game, should he be selected. Which makes this asterisked aside the funniest thing you'll read all day.
Now, of course, it's not entirely fair to look back and say that the Soriano deal is a disaster because, hey, only five more years and $90MM to go! Small price to pay for a guy who posted the same wOBA as Bobby Scales, he of the 11 seasons in the minors. Or, if you prefer, small price to pay for a guy who was worse than Ryan Theriot (who can go by The Riot or The Rallykiller depending on how you feel about him). And, I mean, it's not like Soriano plays a premium offensive position, so why worry about it, right?
All snark aside, I'm curious about where this ranks on the list of worst contracts in the game today. So I did some digging to see exactly what kind of disasters populate the nightmares of General Managers. Last season's performances will be my primary consideration, and all gentlemen listed have to be currently employed on a multi-year contract. So here's a sampling of the worst contracts in MLB, as judged by the difference between a player's salary (from Cot's Baseball Contracts) and his dollar value as calculated by FanGraphs:
Soriano. '09 Salary: $16MM (plus all those hotel suites and tix). '09 $ Value: -$3.3MM.
The $19.3MM disparity between salary and value easily paces the field here. What an oustandingly terrible year. Oh, and Milton Bradley was worth $4.7MM while earning less than half ($7MM) of Soriano's deal.
Yuniesky Betancourt '09 Salary: $2MM. '09 $ Value: -$9.6MM
Betancourt was, by the dollar measure, the worst regular in baseball last season, but he wasn't exactly paid handsomely. By the way, that -$9.6MM value is the single worst mark since 2002, when FanGraphs introduced the number, and it's a full million worse than the next worst season – posted by Neifi Perez. Well done, Yuni – you've really earned that $11.6 net loss.
Vernon Wells '09 $ Value: -$0.5MM
I didn't include his salary here because it's kind of an interesting case – his actual salary, according to Cot's, is only $1.5MM. However, he had a $25.5MM signing bonus that pays out in $8.5MM installments on March 1 from 2008-2010. So he actually made $10MM. Now, if you go by his $1.5 salary number, he doesn't even merit a spot on this list. But the -$10.5MM difference from what he really earned and the value he provided is enormous, and it's only going to get worse, as he's going to pull down over $20MM until death 2014. So I don't have a problem handing him this spot.
David Ortiz '09 Salary: $12.5MM. '09 $ Value: $3.1MM
This one is more a function of a high salary than a truly awful performance, but it's not like Ortiz was doing much to earn his money – he did represent a -$9.4MM return on investment, after all. In baseball terms, he was not only worse than league average but barely better than replacement level (0.7 WAR). I'm on the record as saying that he's more or less finished as an effective hitter (and if you throw his 2009 first/second half splits at me, I'll respond that that's a small sample, and also point you in the direction of his massive home/road disparity), but it's rather a moot point since the Sox are only on the hook to pay him for one more season.
Barry Zito '09 Salary: $18.5MM. '09 $ Value: $10MM
The simultaneously scary and relieving part of this $8.5MM gap is that this season represented a return to usefulness for the much-maligned Yogi hurler. He'll earn another $18.5MM in 2010 and '11, then $19 and $20MM the next two years. So, it's safe to say that he's going to have a hard time earning that money. Oh, and don't worry, we're not done with Brian Sabean yet.
Johan Santana '09 Salary: $20MM '09 $ Value: $12.4MM
Couple of things here: his $8.6MM gap is actually $100,000 larger than Zito's, but I'd bet on Santana returning to form next year, so I gave him the benefit of the doubt. And I was a bit loath to include this one on the list at all, since this is the first time that Santana has been overpaid, and had he thrown a full season, there's a good chance he could've earned his contract. But his deal helps to illustrate the point that Zito's contract has stated so plainly: paying pitchers big money is a risky proposition. After all, Santana had been very durable, stringing together five consecutive seasons of 33+ starts before his elbow gave out on him this year.
Edgar Renteria '09 Salary: $7MM. '09 $ Value: $1.3MM
Told you Sabean wasn't getting off easy. I feel like this is an oft-overlooked contract when bad ones are discussed. Maybe because it was only a 2-year deal (with a $500K buyout for the third year), or maybe because it was the Giants and we're all numb to Brian Sabean doing silly things. In any event, Renteria was rather spectacularly bad this season – to wit, his .328 slugging percentage would be regarded as a horrible OBP (which his was a lofty .308). So, yeah, $5.7MM worth of negative return here. But when you can lock up a 33-year old (probably) shortstop who's battled back woes and ineffectiveness for a couple years and nearly $20MM, well, you just gotta jump at the chance.
So there you have it – some of the biggest wastes of money in the league today. Not that there's any real surprises there...it's just kind of fun to appreciate just how awful guys like Soriano and Betancourt were last season. Oh, and also fun: making predictions about which new faces are going to be on the list next year. My guesses: Jason Kendall, Jason Bay, Scott Podsednik, Juan Pierre, and, for fun, Brian Anderson. He's last on the list, because I'm gonna close with a fun little game for you to pass the time: Guess which bad one on the Royals I'm referring to. Good luck!
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